The theory of the rates

In some sense a bookmaker is a broker between staking people. But his functions are wider: besides taking stakes from players he defines the size of the winning for every stake – a coefficient; thus taking part in the game a bookmaker profit depends on the right coefficient. A bookmaker tries to define coefficients so that in any result of events to be profitable and that’s why practically always result coefficients are corrected depending on distribution of stakes. Thus coefficients reflect not only probabilities of relevant results as many people believe but probabilities in which players stake on these results (or in fact or computation of a bookmaker).

In every day line there are events on which you can stake. You can choose any event and stake on any result according to the rules.

Now let’s analyze a line of a bookmaker office. A line is a list of events and their results with coefficients of the winning, offered by the bookmaker office for making a bet. In most cases the following arrangement of events and coefficients in the line are acceptable.

A line is a list of events and their results with coefficients of the winning offered by the bookmaker office for making a bet.

A bet is a conclude condition between two sides according to which a looser must pay a certain sum of money. Bets are made in the form of taking stakes from players on the conditions offered by the office.

A stake is a sum of money which a player deposits in a bet and looses at the result of loss and it’s also the totality of choices which a player unites putting a certain sum on them.

A result is an end of a sport event to which the office defines the coefficient of the winning.

In the line there are  following results of the match:

Stakes on results:

1 – the victory of the first team

X – a drawn game

2 – the victory of the second team

1X – the victory of the first team or a drawn game

12 – the victory of the first team or the victory of the second team

X2 – the victory of the second team or a drawn game

Stakes with odds (handicap):

O1 – odds for stakes on the first team

C1 – coefficient at stake on the first team with odds

O2 – odds for stakes on the second team

C2 – coefficient at stake on the second team

Asian handicap (odds) can be single or double.

Single odds:

At stakes with odds to the number of goals of Your chosen team odds are added. If after the addition the chosen team won stake played, if it is a drawn game – repayment (payment with the coefficient), if the chosen team lost, stake didn’t play.

For example. You stake on Real Madrid with the odds “-2”. If Real Madrid wins with the difference of 3 goals or more (3:0, 4:0, 4:1 and etc.), stake will play. If real Madrid wins with difference of 2 goals (2:0, 3:1, and etc.), stake must be returned. If Real Madrid wins with 1 goal, plays nil-nil or looses the game stake won’t play.

Double handicap: The stake is divided into two parts. The first half is calculated by initial handicap, the other is by the second presented odds. The coefficient is the same.

For example:

Real Madrid

Barcelona

-1 and -1.5, 1.93

+1 and +1.5, 2.00

If the client stakes on Real Madrid for 100$ it turns out he has got two separate stakes: 50$ on Real Madrid -1 with the coefficient 1.93 and 50$ on Real Madrid -1.5 with the coefficient 1.93. But if the client stakes on Barcelona for 50$ he has got two stakes: 25$ on Barcelona +1 with the coefficient 2.00 and 25$ on Barcelona +1.5 with the coefficient 2.00.

Stakes on total:

For example. At stakes on total You must guess the number of scored goals (more or less of mentioned total). Thus if you want the stake to play on total more than 2,5,  in the match 3 or more goals must be scored (2:1, 2:2, 3:0 and etc.). If you want the stake to play on total less than 2,5, in the match 1 or 2 goals must be scored or the score must be 0:0.

Coefficients in the line can change at any time: they can increase, decrease. Everything depends on staking players. If players stake on one coefficient more than the other the bookmaker decreases this coefficient and increases the other which corresponds to the opposite result. Thus, the bookmaker tries to decrease the number of stakes on a loaded coefficient and to increase the number of stakes on the opposite coefficient. Without doing this it can have big losses while paying stakes.

As the result of this one of disadvantages of the bookmaker office is a big margin on stakes while stake exchanges lack it where a bet is between players. That’s why in more than 50% of all braces there is one of the best exchanges nowadays – BetFair.

What strategies of the game are there?

The strategy “brace” is the only (!) strategy without risk of loss! It’s true, to realize it is more difficult: for this you need to have the opportunity to stake in many bookmaker offices as many as possible and to analyze their lines. It’s better to do it with the help of the program. The program Bookie Analyzer helps to serve such problems.

It’s not even a strategy or rather a tactical motion so called “know-how”.  To put “brace” to bookmakers it’s necessary to have your account in several bookmaker offices. You don’t need to worry how the game finishes on which You stake. You will win in any case!

Search “brace” like this. If we add up probabilities corresponding to coefficients of possible results of events (for example, the victory 1, a drawn game and the victory 2, or the victory 1 and X2), we’ll see that this sum is always more than 2, let us suppose, 10%. This is the profit of the bookmaker which he defines in the coefficients. But as there are many bookmakers and their coefficients differ (sometimes they are quite different) taking for the same event one result at the bookmaker, the second – at another bookmaker, the third is at the other one sometimes you can observe that the sum of probabilities for them are less than 1! It is the “brace”: staking on every result we’ll win, it doesn’t depend on the result of the match.

Look at the example. Let’s suppose , in the office A the coefficient on the victory 1 is 2,70, in the office B the coefficient on the drawn game is -4,00, and the office C the coefficient on the victory 2 is -2,90.  So the sum of probabilities is 1 / 2,70 + 1/ 4,00 + 1 /2,90=0,964, (0,964<1). It means that staking in the office A on the victory 1, in the office B on the drawn game, in the office C on the victory 2, we will see the winning will be bigger than the sum of stakes even if we take the winning in one of the offices!

Calculate the size of stakes. The stake on the victory 1 in the office A must be (2-0,964) / 2,7 =38.37% from the bank, on the drawn game in the office B (2-0,964) / 4,00= 25.90% and on the victory 2 in the office C (2-0,964) / 2,9=35.72%. Then at the size of the bank $100 at any result of the match we will receive the winning $103.60, clear profit $3.60, i.e. 3.6% from the bank. It’s not difficult to calculate that the profit is the difference between sums of mentioned probabilities and one.

The strategy “Catch” is the most popular strategy among players who are neither professionals nor beginners. Catch is a strategy of stakes on the same event until it happens (for example, on the total more on this or that team). Catch must be used only in total with the definite financial and progressive strategy.

Look at the example more often used: catches are on the events with the coefficients 1.5 -1.8 (for example totals). Here it’s better to use the formula which gives the size of stake S depending on the sum W which You want to have in the clear winning (the formula is also good for the catch on events the coefficients of which vary strongly): S=(W+Sn)/(K-1) where Sn is a losing sum on the catch (the sum of all losing stakes after the last winning or if there isn’t a winning – since the beginning of the catch), K is a current coefficient.

When the event “catches” (i.e. the stake plays) you can begin a new catch on the same event, in this case the size of stake is reset until initial. When the catch plays some players begin a new catch on the opposite event. It works better on approximately equiprobable events (for example, on totals with approximately identical coefficients for more or less).

What to catch? The most popular object for catch is totals. As the most pleasant catch is that which seldom continues more than 3-4 iterations. For the catch of the definite event you must choose a competition or a command for which this event is more typical. For this you need to look at statistics of not only the present championship but even of several previous ones. At catches on totals you can limit to comparison of coefficients with bookmakers: for example, in typical “low” football championships the coefficients on total are rarely more than 1.6.

But on the catch which often plays the coefficients are not high.

Thus for receiving the appreciable stake you need to stake a lot that can lead to the ruin at the result of series opposite to  the catch event or to  choose the event with big coefficients for the catch (for example, drawn games). In this case winnings will be rare but the sum of stake will increase more reasonably. You can enter a double catch: at the same time with a catch to do stakes with a fixed sum on the event opposite to it. In this case the sum of clear profit will be small but you practically lack bankruptcy.

The offices of sport stakes are the most perspective direction in the world of sport stakes. The future of stakes belongs exactly to stake offices. The difference between a stake exchange and a bookmaker office is that the player himself can choose a necessary coefficient and he can be a bookmaker. The player can stake in a bookmaker office and can take stakes from other players. The game in an exchange differs from the game in a traditional bookmaker office a little, that’s why for the player who is going to play in a stake exchange the mechanism of work won’t be clear for the first time but after understanding You will realize that a stake exchange is better than a traditional bookmaker office.

One more advantage in an exchange is commission the level of which is much lower than the level of the margin in a bookmaker office.

It is spoken about Betfair, a leader among stake exchanges. The stake exchange Betfair is a world leader in the world of stakes. In the stake exchange Betfair all bets are between players directly who can stake in the ordinary mode (like in a bookmaker office) or take stakes from other players (be a bookmaker).